Last stanza: TAC Cup final round permutations

EVERYONE loves grabbing the calculator and working out the possible outcomes from final round clashes, so we take a look at the TAC Cup and how each team shapes up with a game to go. We look at the best and worst possible results, as well as the likely result if all the higher ranked sides were to win.

 

1 Dandenong Stingrays | 56 points – 211%

vs. Sandringham Dragons – Trevor Barker Beach Oval

Best result: 1st
Worst result: 1st

What a season. The Stingrays can make a real statement in the final round against Sandringham. Not only will it give them a confidence boost, but also a mental advantage given the teams will likely meet in finals. Lose and the Dragons will remind them of it come finals time if they do meet.

 

2 Gippsland Power | 48 points – 154%

vs. Eastern Ranges – Morwell Recreation Reserve

Best result: 2nd
Worst result: 2nd

Cruising along very nicely, the Power are remarkably flying yet do not have the same plaudits as the other three top four sides. They would be expected to take care of business against Eastern and will be keen to finish strongly – but it will not matter as they have already locked up second spot. They did lose to the Pioneers earlier in the season, so will be wary not to lose this game.

 

3 Sandringham Dragons | 40 points – 85%

vs. Dandenong Stingrays – Trevor Barker Beach Oval

Best result: 3rd
Worst result: 5th
Likely result: 5th

Their best is good enough, but can they topple the Stingrays? Dandenong play a different brand of football to last week’s opponent, Oakleigh, but that brand has worked all year long, so the Dragons will need to be at their best if they are any chance of winning. The message during the week will be that top four is in their own hands and a win will result in a week off. Could get a reprieve if either the Rebels or Knights upset Oakleigh or Murray respectively.

 

4 Oakleigh Chargers | 38 points – 132%

vs. GWV Rebels – MARS Stadium

Best result: 3rd
Worst result: 5th
Likely result: 3rd

If Oakleigh play the same way they did in the wet against Sandringham, then good luck Rebels. They looked every bit a premiership contender and should lock up a top four spot with a win here. The Chargers will most likely take third spot if the Stingrays topple the Dragons. But cannot afford to drop the game against the Rebels either with the Bushrangers hot on their tail and able to pounce the next day.

5 Murray Bushrangers | 36 points – 118%

vs. Northern Knights – Norm Minns Oval

Best result: 3rd
Worst result: 5th
Likely result: 4th

Unlike the other two teams battling for a top four spot, they not only need to win, but have to rely on one of the others to lose. As the last team to play out of the three sides, the Bushrangers will know what they are playing for heading into the match. They will hope the Stingrays can knock off the Dragons, which is the most likely scenario, because if last week’s Oakleigh performance is anything to go by, it is hard to see the Rebels toppling the Chargers.

 

6 Western Jets | 32 points – 90%

vs. Bendigo Pioneers – Queen Elizabeth Oval

Best result: 6th
Worst result: 7th
Likely result: 6th

A win is crucial for the Jets, because victory means they guarantee a clash with Eastern Ranges next week. We saw the Falcons push the Stingrays all the way last week and the Jets would be keen to avoid them at all costs if they are up and firing.

 

7 Calder Cannons | 30 points – 106%

vs. Geelong Falcons – MARS Stadium

Best result: 6th
Worst result: 7th
Likely result: 7th

Hard to see the Jets losing to the Pioneers, so this is more than likely the early taste of the Wildcard Round clash between the Cannons and Falcons a week later. If the Pioneers do shock the Jets, they can move to sixth and face the Pioneers instead (or Eastern if they also upset the Power).

 

8 Northern Knights | 26 points – 88%

vs. Murray Bushrangers – Norm Minns Oval

Best result: 8th
Worst result: 9th
Likely result: 8th

Order does not matter, as the Knights will face the Rebels in the Wildcard Round. They can influence Murray’s top four aspirations with a win, and will have the Dragons faithful barracking for them if Sandringham loses to Dandenong.

 

9 GWV Rebels | 22 points – 87%

vs. Oakleigh Chargers – MARS Stadium

Best result: 8th
Worst result: 9th
Likely result: 9th

For the Rebels the order matters little as they look set to face Northern in the Wildcard Round – and at home too. If Sandringham loses to Dandenong, all Dragons will keep a close eye on this game as they need the Rebels (or Knights) to win to keep a top four spot.

 

10 Geelong Falcons | 16 points – 79%

vs. Calder Cannons – MARS Stadium

Best result: 10th
Worst result: 10th

Locked and loaded for tenth the Falcons cannot move up or down. Ironically though they will get a nice rehearsal against the Cannons who seem destined to be their Wildcard Round opponent unless Bendigo cause a boilover against Western.

 

11 Eastern Ranges | 8 points – 62%

vs. Gippsland Power – Morwell Recreation Reserve

Best result: 11th
Worst result: 12th
Likely result: 11th

While many might not see the difference between eleventh and twelfth on the table, aside from avoiding the wooden spoon, it means they will face Western Jets – still a tough task regardless – rather than a potential Sandringham Dragons.

 

12 Bendigo Pioneers | 8 points – 56%

vs. Western Jets – Queen Elizabeth Oval

Best result: 11th
Worst result: 12th
Likely result: 12th

Winning would be massive for the Pioneers, especially if it potentially means facing the Jets a week later if the Falcons topple the Cannons. Otherwise a win means they face Calder. In all likelihood they will meet Sandringham in the Wildcard Round, however could face Oakleigh or Murray depending on results.

 

Potential Wildcard Round: If likely finishes occur

WC1: Sandringham Dragons vs. Bendigo Pioneers
WC2: Western Jets vs. Eastern Ranges
WC3: Calder Cannons vs. Geelong Falcons
WC4: Northern Knights vs. GWV Rebels

Elimination Finals:

EF1: Dandenong Stingrays vs. Winner of WC4
EF2: Gippsland Power vs. Winner of WC3
EF3: Oakleigh Chargers vs. Winner of WC2
EF4: Murray Bushrangers vs. Winner of WC1

Preliminary Finals:

PF1: Winner of EF1 vs. Winner of EF4
PF2: Winner of EF2 vs. Winner of EF3

Grand Final:

Winner of PF1 vs. Winner of PF2

One comment

  1. What an interesting Finals format. Gives everybody a chance irregardless of the ladder finish but does not discriminate against the top 4 sides. On merit those teams should still get through on merit .

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