Draft night: How the new bidding system works
By now most ardent footy fans would be across the new father son and academy bidding system that will have its inauguration at the upcoming AFL Draft. For those still unaware, the system ensures that while not strictly on the open market, clubs will now need to pay market value for players. It ensures that a repeat of the Isaac Heeney situation won’t happen, where a top midfield talent landed at the Swans at pick 18 in the 2014 National Draft. Each pick now has a points value and clubs on draft night will now deal with points accumulation, rather than a pick value.
It also goes a long way to explaining why the recent trade period went the way it did. Clubs who are looking to land a number of academy players swapped higher picks for a range of lower picks purely because it allotted them more points under the new system. This also benefitted sides who aren’t targeting academy or father-son players, as it gave them access to higher picks in trade situations that benefited both parties.
The new system is complicated but is without doubt a better way of dealing with father-son and academy selections. Here is how Bound For Glory News sees draft night panning out, using the predicted bids detailed in the latest phantom draft.
Predicted bid: Pick three
How it happens on draft night: If the bid for highly-rated midfielder Callum Mills comes at pick three, the Sydney Swans will need to find 1787 points. All picks in the first round come with a 20 per cent discount, encouraging clubs to nurture talent through their northern academies. In this instance, Sydney hold picks 33 (563 points), 36 (502 points) and 37 (483 points). Those three picks add up to 1548, meaning that the Swans still need to find an extra 239 points to claim Mills. They do this but subtracting 239 to their next pick in the draft, 44, meaning that it turns it pick 62. Mills will become a Swans player on draft night and this new system ensures that they pay actual market value for a player that is rated one of, if not the best midfielders in the draft pool.
Predicted bid: Pick four
How it happens on draft night: The Giants would have prepared for this scenario, where they will need to find 1627 points. In a fairly simple transaction, they will use pick 10 (1395 points). The remaining 232 points will turn their next pick from 34 to 48.
Predicted bid: Pick eight
How it happens on draft night: With the Giants using their prized pick 10 to land Jacob Hopper, they will have to match the bid of 1241 points with their multiple later selections. Picks 43 (378 points), 48 (310 points), 53 (233 points), 55 (207 points) get the Giants to 1141, meaning they only need to give up another 100 points to claim Kennedy. Those leftover points will be subtracted from their pick 58, turning it into pick 67.
Predicted bid: Pick 11
How it happens on draft night: Brisbane need to find 1063 points to claim project player Eric Hipwood from their academy. They traded for this exact scenario, meaning that their picks 38 (465 points) and 39 (446 points) will leave them with just another 152 points to find. If this happens on the night, their pick 40 becomes pick 50. The Lions will be hoping a bid for Hipwood comes as late as possible, ensuring that their later picks are kept for others bids that may come for other academy players.
Predicted bid: Pick 15
How it happens on draft night: Keays is the other player from the Lions academy that will almost certainly find a home at Brisbane. If the bid comes at 15, they will have to give up 890 points to snare him. They do this by giving up picks 41 (412 points) and 42(395 points), with their pick 50 sliding again to pick 57 in order to make up the remaining 83 points.
Predicted bid: Pick 40
How it happens on draft night: The Giants academy product should land at the Giants but that all depends on how high opposition clubs bid on him. GWS have a glutton of 2016 academy prospects to consider as well, meaning that they would prefer not to go into deficit ahead of next year’s draft. If the bid comes at pick 40, the Giants will only be required to find 429 points. Picks 63 (112 points), 64 (101 points), 65 (90 points) and 67 (69 points) will all be used in this scenario, leaving 57 points left to match the bid. If this is the case on draft night, the Giants will go into a slight deficit heading into 2016. They have prepared for this scenario by the way of trading for a number of future draft picks so they should be able to cover a bid.
Predicted bid: Pick 27
How it happens on draft night: Dunkley, the son of 217-game Swans player Andew only nominated for the Sydney as a father-son late on Friday afternoon. There is much conjecture as to where a bid will come for the talented midfielder, with some clubs rating him in the low twenties, while others see himas a later prospect. If the bid comes at pick 27, currently held by Collingwood, Sydney will need to match it with 506 points. The acquisition of Callum Mills means that they will need to use later picks and may even have to go into deficit in 2016 depending on how high a bid comes. In this case, picks 54 (220 points), 62 (123 points), 69 (49 points) and 72 (19 points) will all be used, leaving 114 points of deficit. The Swans will be hoping other clubs don’t match until a pick in the thirties but that is the beauty of the new points system – it ensures that Sydney will have to pay market value on the night.
Predicted bid: Pick 30
How it happens on draft night: Rice was eligible as a father-son with both St.Kilda and Carlton but chose the former shortly after the 2015 season concluded. Rice won’t command a high number of points, with a bid around 30 expected on draft night. If it comes, the Saints will need to find 432 points. Pick 45 (347 points) will be used, with their next pick in the draft sliding back from 68 to a pick of 74 or higher, with picks at that point worth zero points.
Predicted bid: Pick 53
How it happens on draft night: The son of a gun, list manager and father Steven has said the decision to match a bid for his son should be made without his input. If a bid comes around 53 as we expect it to, Carlton will only need to find 36 points to acquire the services of the raw talent. As they don’t have pick 70, the equivalent of 36 points, the Blues will need to use their current pick 60. On draft night the order of the draft will change dramatically, so a bid could come higher than 53. The Blues have both picks 59 and 60 as it stands, meaning they will have no trouble adding another Silvagni to their inexperienced list.